Limb and a prayer

I am nothing if not bold.

And not bold in the corporate advertising sense when they use the word to describe a new steaksauce's taste alongside the word "zesty." Because, let's be honest: I may be bold, but I am far from zesty.

(I have no idea what I'm talking about.)

Bold in the sense of predictions. Understanding whole-heartedly that even if I can brag about boldness in my predictions, I rarely get to brag about success in my predictions. That's the thing, if you step far enough out on a limb, you rarely get a chance to come back and talk gleefully about it.

But here's a few I have entertained in the past few days.

Bold Prediction No.1: Ricky Williams will not lead the CFL in rushing this season.
Bold Prediction No.2: The Winnipeg Blue Bombers will finish 11-7 this season.
Bold Prediction No.3: On June 23, 2006, the Winnipeg Blue Bombers, in their regular-season home debut, will hold Ricky Williams to under 100 yards rushing.

Now, the latter of the first two is decidedly less bold than the former, but not all that lacking in brashness when you consider how immersed in suckitude the Bombers were in 2005. I think 11-7 has a nice ring to it and I'd certainly be pleased with that mark. I will be seeing the Blue in their first regular-season action on Friday night at Winnipeg Stadium (we don't have to use the corporate name, you know), and I will form a report on first glimpse from that. In the meantime, I'll reserve judgment on Nos.2 and 3 except to say that I'm encouraged by what is in camp this season.

But as for No.1, it's a prognostication that many people would utterly disagree with, evidenced by the lambasting I took when I shook hands on a 10-dollar bet of the like.

So here is my theory.

Ricky Williams is indeed a tremendous talent and would likely be Pro Bowl material in the NFL this season all things being equal. Let the rest of this argument not go on without understanding that I acknowledge the aforementioned's potential to completely annihilate this league in his one kick at it.

I just don't think it's going to happen that way.

I'll fully acknowledge that perhaps 50 per cent of my logic stems from my just-now-devised Theorem of Mass Hysteria that says, paraphrased: If the entire population is convinced it's going to happen, be prepared that it won't. The most recent proof of this came in the NFL Draft (re: Bush, Reggie).

Are we not underestimating the talent of the defensive players in the CFL? And are we not overlooking the very different styles of play from what Ricky has gotten used to and what he'll experience in the CFL?

The CFL has always had this air of inferiority hanging over it whenever an NFL star comes north. And you know what happens when they get here? Usually not much.

Jim Zorn, who's on the Seattle Seahawks wall of fame for God-sake, was a complete bust; Albert Connell breezed through with hardly anyone noticing, Dexter Manley was as expected (old and useless) and, Lawrence Phillips — with arguably the same athletic pedigree as Williams — had a measure of success but was far from becoming the historical back he hastily christened himself when he arrived.

This is where I see Ricky fitting in, somewhere in the middle.

First off, linebackers in this league aren't just pylons. They're athletic, very quick and they're damn sure not going to be comically diving and missing by five feet as he sprints untouched down the field like some poorly-produced sitcom scene. This isn't Rudy "Sweet Feet" Huxtable people.

I can't back up my gut feeling with statistics, except to suggest that the Argonauts are the pass-happiest team in the pass-happy CFL. Hence, Ricky won't be getting 30 carries a game, likely. That said, I don't even really believe that to be a strong argument. After all, you'd be a fool to not use your most dangerous weapon repeatedly.

No, I can't and don't feel the need to back up my gut reactions with these things called facts. Just suffice it to say, I'm confident that Ricky won't get off like everyone and their mother is predicting. Leading me to...

Still, the Argos are suddenly loaded at the RB and we're just to expect that incumbent John Avery and young gun Jeff Johnson, who the team was in love with late last season in a relief role, are suddenly not getting the ball ever?

I just think we need to tone it down a bit before we go predicting a 2,000-yard season with 36 TDs or something ridiculous. He's very good. I get it.

Bold Prediction, No.3:

If I'm way off base on either of Nos.1-2, I will delete records of this blog and deny any and all existence of the words stated herein.

But I'm predicting that won't be necessary.

Go Blue.