Monday, May 07, 2007

What is value?

Following up yesterday's blog on the NBA's rookie of the year, time to chime in briefly on the upcoming announcement of the league's MVP.

It is likely that Dallas' Dirk Nowitzki will be named shortly as the MVP after a season in which he led the Mavs to a 67-win effort by averaging 24.6 points and 8.9 rebounds per game while shooting 50 per cent from the field and 42 per cent from deep.

Whether it be voters' hesitance to give Steve Nash a third-straight MVP or simply that Nowitzki was the best performer on, statistically, the league's best team, it's unlikely that anyone other than the German will garner the coveted trophy.

Unlike the rookie blog, we won't get overly into the statistical argument of Dirk v. Nash, but suffice to say Nowitzki's numbers are far from stunning in an historical sense. His stats don't rank him in the same echelon as many past MVPs and certainly Nowitzki's season will go down as relatively unmemorable for an MVP.

But besides all of that, there is likely no bigger indication of Dirk's un-MVP-ness than what has shaken down during the playoffs, which sadly don't play a role in the voting. Nowitzki couldn't even get his No.1-seed Mavericks into the second round of the playoffs and disappeared for much of the six-game upset that the Golden State Warriors dealt his team. His most significant minutes — when he bagged a pair of threes and had a huge block in a deciding late run in Game 5 — were a rarity in a series in which he was just another player.

Put two snapshots from the past week of Nash and Nowitzki together:

• Nowitzki lays an egg in a series-deciding game in Oakland (2-for-13 for eight points) and his team, the one that he is the unquestioned leader of, is bombed by 25 points by an 8-seed.

• Game 1 of the Phoenix-San Antonio semifinal series and Nash collides with Tony Parker, busting up his nose until it's an ugly, lacerated mess. Parker drops in a heap, Nash barely flinches, later hits a key three with bloodied bandages on his sniffer and is forced out of the game because the medical staff couldn't stop the thing from leaking. San Antonio wins the game, Nash finishes with 33 points and the Spurs afterwards sounded almost gloomy about the win, acknowledging that Nash's presence in the final minute would have likely changed the complexion of the finish.

Now, I'm not like many of the Canadian basketball fans who are just unabashedly pro-Nash because he happens to be one of us (although South Africans also have a claim to him, don't forget). He's a pretty damn good player, though. But what is most striking about Nash is his desire and fire to simply not let his team lose games. You see him take over games and you know that any game he's involved in, the Suns have a chance to win. His 18.6 points per game and 11.6 assists per are both equal or better than both of his previous MVP seasons and he shot the three at a ridiculous 50 per cent.

You feel like teams legitimately are concerned with how to defend Nash whereas the book on Dirk remains to pressure him on the perimeter, get physical with him and you can force him to struggle. It was less so this season than in the past, but the option still very much remains.

It's difficult, then, to say this is the most valuable basketball player to his team in the NBA even though the league and its voters are likely just days away from (mistakingly) telling you that he is.



A few other random notes:
• Roger Clemens coming back to New York is the winner for the award of running storyline that less and less people are paying attention to. Clemens unretired for the fourth time Saturday and signed a one-year, $28-million deal with the Yanks, giving the Bombers a much-needed arm in their starting rotation. No one should doubt that Clemens can still compete at a high level — he's proven year after year in his 40s that he can — but adding one ace to the rotation likely won't be enough for New York, which has suffered injury problems and has had a record 10 pitchers start games already through 30 contests. The Yankees are 5 1/2 back of the Red Sox and have beaten Boston just once in six outings this season.

Bold and ridiculous predictions are traditions in the Point After, so here's another: They're done.

• Also done are the Toronto Blue Jays who came into the season with such hope after a slew of off-season signings that beefed up their offence but failed to address their need throughout the bullpen. Injuries and blown saves have just served to highlight the glaring needs the Jays still had if they want to be in the elite of the money-grubbing AL East.

• Mentioned this prediction verbally back on April 8 after the San Diego Padres 2-1 win over Colorado, but never made it public record. Now I feel I have to get it out before it becomes less and less bold:

Jake Peavy will be the National League's Cy Young Award winner.

At 4-1 with a 1.75 ERA and only one home run allowed thus far, he's certainly making an early case for the award and is getting my nod for "Thing That Actally Makes Me Pay Attention To The Baseball Season" award.

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