Selection Sunday

The final seedings for the CIS national men's basketball tournament will be released Sunday, so I'll take one last crack at predicting where the Elite 8 will find themselves.

First off, this is how I see it going:
1. Concordia
2. UBC
3. Brandon
4. Windsor
5. Acadia
6. Carleton
7. Ottawa
8. St. Mary's

Now, let me explain (with last week's rankings in parentheses):

St. Mary's (NR) absolutely has to be an 8 after being unranked all year and then losing the AUS championship on Saturday. Concordia (1) won its conference after being the No. 1 in last week's rankings, so the Stingers are absolutely the 1 heading into Halifax. So that's your lock for a first-round game.

Moving down the list, Carleton (2) has to drop for a loss, but how far? UBC (3) will move up because of the Ravens loss in the Wilson Cup on Saturday. I have to think Brandon will move up too. But Carleton has to be ranked ahead of Ottawa (5) AND you can't have any of Ottawa, Windsor (8) or Carleton in a 4-5 or 3-6 game because they're in the same conference. (The CIS avoids inter-conference first-round games). In reality, Carleton's loss just pushes Ottawa further down now, whereas they might have been a 6 before the Wilson Cup final on Saturday.

Now, Windsor and Acadia (T9) both need top-6 spots — CIS rule — and Windsor needs to be ahead of Carleton but I don't think you can justify them moving up past UBC or Brandon (both have better records and have been ranked higher). Plus, you'd be asking Windsor to make a four-step rise in the rankings, which I think is bold considering the only team the Lancers beat who were ranked in the playoffs was Carleton. Windsor's 22-7 overall record and soft strength-of-schedule rating also hurts them. But I think you put Windsor ahead of Acadia because their record is better, their SOS is better and they've been ranked higher than them most of the season.

So there you have Carleton dropping all the way to the 6 (for the loss to Windsor and also having to avoid Windsor in a first-round game) and then Ottawa has to be below them.

The only question mark here is, does Brandon deserve to be a No. 3 when the Bobcats didn't even win their conference while Windsor and Acadia both did. However, Brandon's record is better, they were ranked higher, they were the No. 1 for six weeks, they have a stronger SOS and a higher RPI (the overall power index). No way Acadia should jump Brandon and I think Windsor's case for doing that is thin too.

So there you have it (I think)... The Brandon Bobcats, if you want to listen to me, will be playing the four-time defending national champion Carleton Ravens in the first round.

I'll deal with this on Sunday when the seedings officially come out, but I think — and call me crazy if you want — the Carleton match-up is honestly the best one available for the Bobcats.

More on that tomorrow.