Parched Madness

If you heard a wooshing sound about ... oh ... around midday Friday, that was the sound of my NCAA bracket going down the drain.

Now, let's be straight here people. I put in more thought, logged more hours and crunched more statistics for this year's draft than any year previous. I printed upwards of 50 pages from bracketologist Pete Tiernan and poured over the minutia of his statistical renderings. I was the Expert of All Experts.

I filled out the bracket with confident pen strokes yet all the while maintaining the same caution a teenager uses to avoid stepping on the creaky parts of the floor when he's sneaking in the house at night. I got through the first round sluggishly and pondered the key games in bracket pools: Figuring out the Nos.10, 11 and even 12 that might play the role of Cinderella.

Well, San Diego State literally (literally)threw the game away against Indiana; Utah State never looked remotely competitive against Washington and Bucknell beat Alabama, making my lone "upset" to come through a mere No.9 over a No.8. Big deal.

On top of all that? Because of Tiernan's overwhelming statistical findings I even went against my gut in games such as Montana v. Nevada, George Mason v. Michigan State, Texas A&M v. Syracuse. Had I gone with the Larkins system, tested and true in a pool victory last season, I would have had three significant upset picks through to the second round.

I almost had to quit my job to cover all of the Tiernan compilation and then almost enrolled in a night course to figure out what the hell he was talking about.

A sample:

The No. 1 seeds that advance to the Final Four tend to be experienced squads, having been to the tourney the previous year. They also boast a preseason Associated Press All-American, beat their opponents by more than 10 points per game and get between 25 and 65 percent of their scoring from the backcourt. Top seeds with these attributes are 31-21 in getting into the semifinals; those without them are 5-27.

Now, it's not biochemistry or thermonuclear dynamics but it's rather involved, nonetheless. Incidentally, I would have fared just as well in a pool on those subjects as I have done on the NCAA. The lesson here? Never read.

Point of the matter?

*turns body to face full-length mirror*

David, believe in yourself. When someone says Zips, you go Zags. When everyone and their mother is banging Boston College for the Final Four, you stick to your guns and remember Villanova was your pick for the championship game a month ago and you're not wavering from it. So when some nerdlinger ad-exec-by-day turns bracketologist and tries to blaspheme your beloved sport by making manno a manno into an exact science and you buy it up like a fat man reaches for his SaunaBelt, you remember, oh Merchant of the Madness, you're the guy who picked Louisville (on a TV appearance no doubt) to be in the Final Four last year and no one can ever replace gut reactions.

Now, everyone, suck up the Iowa's, Tennessee's and Nevada's and move happily into the second round of the greatest tournament in sports. New games await and they are yours for the picking.

Just remember to flip a coin.